As we already covered during the Democratic Edition of No Filter Network’s New York Primary Preview:
“New Yorkers, Republican and Democratic voters alike, will take to the voting booths today to cast their vote in the NY Presidential Primaries. Today marks the first presidential primary in 14 days for the 3 remaining Republican candidates (when people actually vote) and 10 days for the “2” remaining Democrat candidates. Here’s a quick recap of where we left off last time we were talking dellies (dellies = delegates, and I’m only going to remind you a few more times. Also, my nicknames will improve with time ala “long-ass rice”):”
Now, as for the Republican side heading into today’s primary in New York. Where did we leave off again?
It’s pretty fair to say that the GOP Establishment has been in utter disarray for some time now. Republicans are increasingly worried that Donald Trump will now reach the coveted 1,237 dellies by the time the GOP Convention goes down in Cleveland in mid-July.
For those unaware, the current Republican candidates need to earn at least 1,237 delegates through the primary season in order to win the outright party nomination. If the majority vote isn’t reached by any candidate, certain delegates that were once automatically pledged to candidates based on voting results are able to re-vote themselves. That’s what we call a good old fashion Brokered Convention. Once a nomination race reaches the Convention without an outright winner, all bets are off. If no candidate earns a majority of the delegates after the first round of re-votes, a second vote is implemented. Except this time, even more pledged delegates are able to re-vote themselves. As you can see, the emergence of a Brokered Convention is basically the first domino to drop. The GOP is hoping that if the nomination race can get to a Brokered Convention, enough “newly-freed” delegates will vote against Trump.
However, the Republican Party has finally kinda-sorta-maybe regained its footing and established a real strategy for defeating Trump in future primaries. As we covered, Scott Walker rallied the Republicans of Wisconsin to coalesce in an effort to persuade voters to vote against Trump. In a relatively surprising turn of events, Cruz handedly won Wisconsin. In fact, Cruz has won 2 of the last 3 state primaries (Utah and Wisconsin). It seems if the GOP Elite can create and implement a systematic plan to slowing down Trump, it just might work…. (who would have fucking thought?).
When understanding the ultimate and desperate goal of the Republican Party, it makes more sense why John Kasich is still in the race. In Johnny Boy’s glass-half-full opinion, Kasich has impressively managed to remain as 1 of the final 3 GOP candidates remaining in a field that began with +15. In reality, John Kasich has only won one fucking state (his own state of Ohio) and is +600 dellies behind Trump and +400 dellies behind Cruz. Basically, Johnny Boy is going full The Joker on a bunch of campaign donor money:
But when you think about it, if Kasich stays in the race it increases the odds of Trump not reaching a majority of delegates. Whether or not Kasich is a naive dreamer or a real-deal political pawn remains to be seen. While some of the Republican Elite are hoping Kasich sticks around to dwindle Trump’s lead, there’s no doubt Cruz is definitely butthurt about it. Cruz wants the majority deleagates for himself, because lord knows plenty of “fellow” Republicans that despise Alf will not vote for him in a potential Brokered Convention. In fact, the Cruz Campaign has resorted to dirty tactics in order to get Kasich removed off certain state ballots (I know, what a slimeball).
At the end of the day, behind all of that background information and clamor about hypothetical situations, one thing has somehow (and completely shockingly) remained constant: The Trump Train has continued to roll.
Somehow, Donald Trump has survived blunder after blunder and remained atop the delegate-leaderboard among the GOP candidates. Some of these absurd and fucking asinine blunders include:
- Calling Mexicans rapists.
- Publicly mocking Carly Fiorina’s “face”.
- Stating that he would date his daughter Ivanka, if she wasn’t his daughter.
- Mocking John McCain for being a POW while serving in the US military.
- Stating that Megyn Kelly has “blood coming out of her everywhere”.
- Referring to Pope Francis’ comments as “disgraceful”.
I guess these things don’t matter to the majority of Republican voters who continue to turn out for The Donald. I’m not Trump superfan, but it’s always important to remember the real motivations of Trump’s devout supporters. Trump’s continued success and popularity is 100% positively correlated to people just being completely fed-up with the US government’s status quo (as opposed to attributing the phenomenon to simply “low-educated individuals).
After all of Cruz’s dirty campaign tricks, all of Trump’s continued bombast, and John Kasich’s continued weathering in the wind, this is where the current GOP Delegate Count stands heading into tonight:
There are 95 delegates on the line for the GOP candidates tonight in the #NYPrimary.
Our expectations: Trump Finishes the night with +15% more votes than the runner up. It’ll be interesting to see how well Cruz does following his horseshit/malarkey “New York Values” schtick from earlier this year. Despite his sliminess and scary resemblance to Alf, Ted Cruz will most likely finish ahead of John Kasich.
It’ll be interesting to see the message the Republican Party sends through the media for the remainder of the week if/when Trump dominated in New York.
Buckle Up. It’s Gon Get Bumpy.