Will Trump Turn Blue States Into Red States?

ALLLLL ABBBOOOARRRD! The Trump train is rolling.

Trump Train.jpg

As we’ve highlighted countless of times, everyone underestimated Trump and his ability to connect to the core emotions (both positive and negative) of American voters. The media tried to annihilate him while simultaneously giving him hundreds of millions of dollars worth of free air-time. The Republican Establishment thought their traditional puppeteering tactics would swiftly wipe The Donald off the scene. Oh no no no, ya bish.

Trump has defied all odds and maintained his status as GOP frontrunner for over half a year. The only possible thing that could possibly keep Trump off of the general election ballot would be a contest convention. Because Lord knows that nothing The Donald says will have a negative impact on his like-ability (or lack there of?).

With the Trump phenomenon, has come record breaking turnout. So much so, that fuckface political pundits have begun to wonder whether or not Trump has the ability to convert traditionally blue states (Democratic) into red states (Republicans). While this theory very well might become a reality, let’s chill the fuck out for a second.

Peep this chart from 538, bruh: 

Trump Blue States.png

 

Silver highlights in his article how while the Trump Train continues to roll, it could be a shell carrying no passengers. 

The two columns on the chart show Trump’s voting shares within just the GOP and relative to both Republican and Democratic voters. Even as the dominant GOP leader, Trump only has 37% of the Republican votes in the states that have held primaries so far. This may be a concern going forward, but it’s worth noting that Trump has campaigned against over ten different candidates. Obviously it is more difficult to establish a true majority when the voting pie is split in so many different slices.

When compared to total voters between both parties, Trump’s voting share is a mere 21%.

That sounds troubling. But here’s the thing… this is kind of a stupid, non-realistic, empty stat. Sorry, Nate Silver.

I’m a big fan of Nate’s, but I’m sure he even knows this piece is flawed. Obviously Trump’s voting percentages are going to be super low when pooled with Democratic voters. But it doesn’t account for an environment when voters are given a binary choice: A or B.

All I’m saying is, Trump make look a bit more favorable as Choice B to a whole lotta people when Choice A happens to be an inept career-politician that is under multiple criminal FBI investigations. 

 

And you know it boy.

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